Given that there is no evidence that market timing can be used effectively (except perhaps by a few particularly good and particularly disciplined trend followers), I have no idea. As Keynes is said to have put it, the market can stay irrational longer than one can stay solvent.
That said, the idea that longer-term price movements *can* be exploited has much more promise. It was on that basis that I expected markets to turn negative this year (click on “Publications” and review my 2011 Investment Outlook for details) and that I doubt that the current secular bear market will end anytime soon. I am not sanguine about the markets, about the economy or about our political situation.
Above the Market 
A chart may be worth a thousand words, but you have not offered any conclusions here.
The chart can be interpreted to mean that the rally still has another 50% to go….
….or it could mean that a downturn and another 40% fall is imminent.
So which is it?
“So which is it?”
Given that there is no evidence that market timing can be used effectively (except perhaps by a few particularly good and particularly disciplined trend followers), I have no idea. As Keynes is said to have put it, the market can stay irrational longer than one can stay solvent.
That said, the idea that longer-term price movements *can* be exploited has much more promise. It was on that basis that I expected markets to turn negative this year (click on “Publications” and review my 2011 Investment Outlook for details) and that I doubt that the current secular bear market will end anytime soon. I am not sanguine about the markets, about the economy or about our political situation.
OK. But the picture does not clearly indicate this. So the chart does not tell us anything about the future….
“So the chart does not tell us anything about the future….”
As always with respect to the markets, past performance is not indicative of future results.