I have often written about the need to rely upon data rather than upon ideology as we seek to come to conclusions and make decisions amidst uncertainty and complexity. Tim Harford looks at this subject in “Trial, Error and the God Complex” below. His book — and it’s quite good — is Adapt.
Thanks for sharing this video, I really enjoyed it. I am not sure his points were supporting your conclusions that data is key. In fact I think data leads financial people to become overconfident as I note in this blogpost.
Thanks for reading and commenting, Gary.
I agree with your blog post that overconfidence is a real problem. However, it seems clear to me is that the problem isn’t data per se, but the misinterpretation of data (especially when it seems to fit within our preferred ideology to create a compelling narrative). That’s why the scientific method insists upon testing and retesting the data/hypothesis. As I have written repeatedly, I believe in what actually works, not in models that look like they fit the data and seemingly ought to work.
Good point. I like your blog.