A Chart is Worth a Thousand Words

Source:  Merrill Lynch via The Big Picture



2 thoughts on “A Chart is Worth a Thousand Words

  1. Which thousand words?

    Bob, what are the boxes in the figure? GDP expansions?

    While the long term (back to 1900) trend of low interest rates is interesting, it is likely relevant. Note that the world starting abandoning the Bretton Woods standard in 1970, the same year that the U.S. ran a balance of payments deficit and a trade deficit for the first time in the 20th Century. We also had a fiscal deficit, and persistent inflation. Since 1970, the nominal rate on T-bonds remained above 5.5% until we (Greenspan) started inflating our bubble around 2001.

    If I had a crystal ball, I’d be a a hedge fund billionaire. Nevertheless, here it goes: I am convinced T-bond rates over the next 30 years are way more likely to be near 5.5% than 2.5%, notwithstanding the temporary flight to safety, and Fed’s side-effect-free (for now) monetization of debt, that has been keeping bond price high.

  2. The boxes are secular bear markets (long periods of essentially no price appreciation, usually characterized by PE10 compression).

    Your crystal ball is similar to my own.

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