Forecasting Folly

John Hussman is a really smart guy as well as an interesting and often insightful analyst. But forecasting is exceedingly difficult even for the best of us.  Notice what he wrote on March 5, 2012: 

“The present menu of investment opportunities continues to be among the worst in history.”

It was thus an “awful time to invest.”  Since that piece was written, the S&P 500 is up 20.91 percent.SPY  Oops.


2 thoughts on “Forecasting Folly

  1. Pingback: Here We Go Again: Forecasting Follies 2016 | Above the Market

  2. Pingback: Occam's - Prophets & Losses: Predicting the Market is a Losing Proposition - McLean Asset Management

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