“Investing successfully is really hard.” (Tadas Viskanta).
- “October: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February.” (Mark Twain).
- Manage risk first.
- In the shorter-term, markets are voting machines; in the longer-term, they are weighing machines.
- “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” (John Maynard Keynes).
- We like to think we see things as they really are, but we actually see things as we really are.
- Information is cheap; meaning is expensive.
- There is always someone on the other side of a trade and that someone is often smarter and more well-informed than you are.
- Investing is both probabilistic and mean-reverting.
- Cut your losses; let your winners run.
- “Investment success accrues not so much to the brilliant as to the disciplined.” (William J. Bernstein).
- When you’ve won, stop playing.
- Diversification is the only free lunch in the markets.
- Data is more reliable than your gut.
- “The big money is not in the buying or the selling, but in the sitting.” (Jesse Livermore).
- Various market approaches work…until they don’t.
- Value process over outcome.
- “We must base our asset allocation not on the probabilities of choosing the right allocation but on the consequences of choosing the wrong allocation.” (Jack Bogle).
- It probably isn’t different this time.
- Fight the current war, not the last one.
- Make sure your facts are right and your data is good.
- “The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell.” (Franklin Templeton).
- Being exceptional requires doing things differently.
- You can be and often are wrong.
- Plan (and have contingency plans).
- “For the simplicity on this side of complexity, I wouldn’t give you a fig. But for simplicity on the other side of complexity, for that I would give you anything I have.” (Oliver Wendell Holmes, Sr.).
- Correlation is not causation; consensus is not truth; and what is conventional is rarely wisdom.
- We always know less than we think.
- “Never confuse genius with a bull market.” (Humphrey B. Neill).
- History doesn’t repeat, but it often rhymes.
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