What Scares Me

In honor of Halloween, and since six is said to be the number of the devil, here is my listing of six very scary financial threats.

(1) I’m not sold on the strength of the economy — not by a long shot.  Household incomes are poor and so is consumer confidence.  Moreover… 

(2) Housing prices don’t seem to have bottomed and, overall, I fear that more substantial deleveraging will be required before recovery can be meaningful.

(3) I’m not convinced that the Eurozone “solution” is one.

(4) The debt ceiling debacle isn’t the end of the story.  Disfunctionality remains (especially with the 2012 elections looming), the “super committee” hasn’t done anything yet, and deficits remain a long-term problem.

(5) I fear that bank earnings numbers are too predicated upon free float from the Fed and mask still-toxic assets that remain over-valued.

(6) Despite everything that has happened since 2007,  I still sense excessive faith in the markets and in the benefits of diversification (if holding stocks for the long run or being diversified really did make investing safe, mutual fund companies would gladly guarantee your investments, but none do).

2 thoughts on “What Scares Me

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